An analysis of american and russian national interests in syria. The us could begin by limiting the damage of the syrian conflict to its wider regional stability and counterterrorism goals. The time to turn the tide against assad is now, senator menendez said, the united states must play a role in tipping the scales toward opposition groups and working to build a free and democratic syria. Pdf the battle between the usa and russia that had been snuffed by the.
Sputnik photo agency reuters after nearly seven years, the syrian civil war is finally winding down, and the middle easts various powers are looking ahead to what comes next. For vladimir putin, the struggle in syria is emblematic of the central theme of his rule, the restoration of russia as a great power, whose views and interests in the middle east and. Russian president vladimir putin and syrian president bashar alassad at syrias khmeimim air force base, december 2017. Russian involvement in the syrian civil war syria syria. Iran, syria, algeria, and other countries continue to buy russian made weapons and. Russia to back israel against iran in syria,middle east monitor, may 29, 2018. The suez war in 1956 accelerated a multiplication of ties between syria and the soviet union, simultaneously with the increase in power. Sep 27, 2018 despite working closely with israels traditional enemies, syria and iran, during syria s civil war, russia has managed to maintain a good relationship with israel. It enables russia to pursue the limited objective of securing its military interests on the syrian coast, where the port of tartus is russia s only remaining middle east base and where many dual russian syrian citizens live. Russian special forces repel a usplanned attack in syria. The core russian interest is the military neutralization of ukraine. Nothing notable has been said beyond an official statement from the russian foreign ministry urging all sides to show restraint and avoid actions that could lead to further complications. A free syrian army fighter takes cover during clashes with the syrian.
Israel seeks to minimize iranian and russian influence in syria, block the transfer of advanced weapons to hezbollah, prevent syria from posing a credible military threat to israel or permitting iran to do so, undermine the legitimacy of syria s claims to the golan heights, and prevent sunni militants from establishing infrastructure or. The real reason why iran backs syria the national interest. Israel has five main objectives in the syrian conflict. However, the syrian case, in russia regions of national interest is different from that of. Syria s complex and devastating civil war has drawn in multiple foreign powers since it broke out in 2011. Russia s po l i c y in t h e mi d d l e eas t pr o s p e c t. Foreign involvement in the syrian civil war wikipedia. Russian ministers led the negotiations to restructure the kremlin loans. During all the ups and downs in the present crises engulfing middle east, one thing has remained the same the unflinching support of russia for its longtime ally syrias bashar. Thomas points to optimistic versus pessimistic russian views on how the recent us election will impact us policy in syria. Iranian involvement in the syrian civil war wikipedia. With the help of russian air strikes, the assad regime was able to make substantial gains against opposition forces in northern syria. Optimistically, some feel that the election of donald trump may diminish the us security threat, offer russia new opportunities in the region, and thus allow russia to prioritize other interests than it has been.
Russian objectives in syria the russian deployment to syria likely supports multiple objectives. Russian involvement in the syrian civil war wikipedia. The effects of russian intervention in the syria crisis 3 overview in springsummer 2015, russia and iran pursued an initiative for highlevel international talks, aimed at keeping president bashar alassad or at least elements of his regime in place as part of a political transition in syria. Foreign involvement in the syrian civil war refers to political, military and operational support to parties involved in the ongoing conflict in syria that began in march 2011, as well as active foreign involvement. President obama arrived in russia today for the group of 20 economic summit, where everyone is hoping he might be able to make some progress with. Russia can reinforce its airforce in syria within 24 hours. Apr 29, 2016 most recently, on february 16, 2016, russian fighters conducted an aerial attack that destroyed a hospital in the northeast of syria as well as a school north of aleppo the united nations reported that at least 50 people were killed that day as a result of russian missile attacks hrw, 2015. Jun 19, 2018 russian ministers led the negotiations to restructure the kremlin loans.
Russia accounted for 78 percent of syrias weapons purchases between 2007 and 2012, according to the stockholm international peace research institute. According to the stockholm international peace research institute sipri, russian arms sales to syria totalled 4. In an essay that appeared in the national interest at the start of last year, john mearsheimer, who is perhaps the. Russia relationship and brought into sharp focus the incompatibility of washingtons interests in syria with those of moscow.
Syria also made its first request for a deployment of soviet bombers and fighter planeswhich the kremlin turned downin 1956, in the wake of. Widespread presence of the russian oil and gas companies in syria is also remarkable. Turkey has been diplomatically and militarily involved in the syrian civil war since its outbreak in 2011. A sustainable strategy to contain is and undermine its recruitment efforts. Syria ordered to russia more modern weapons that would further improve its combat capabilities. Understanding russias intervention in syria rand corporation. Russias 2015 military intervention in syria s civil war took many by surprise. In contrast to accounts that emphasize russias longterm. Russias policy on syria after the start of military. Following russian intervention in the syrian war on september 30, 2015, began to turn in favor of the assad regime for the. Russian aircraft began bombing missions against opponents of the assad regime at the end of september 2015. History, the civil war and peace prospects article pdf available january 2018 with 12,268 reads. First, objectively, the russian contingent in syria is a tiny one if compared to the immense power of centcom, nato and the everpresent israelis. How a secret russian airlift helps syrias assad reuters.
How and why russia is fixing syrias devastated economy. The effects of russian intervention in the syria crisis. Turkeys syria intervention serves israeli strategic interests. Or edward luttwaks paen to putins strategic brilliance. The russian naval facility in tartus, syria, was established during the cold war under a 1971 agreement with syria. It enables russia to pursue the limited objective of securing its military interests on the syrian coast, where the port of tartus is russias only remaining middle east base and where many dual russiansyrian citizens live. Aug 23, 20 obamas references to the core national interests that would be threatened by the use or spread of chemical weapons in the middle east could be a sign that a decision on us action in syria is. Russia and iran, the two main military allies and enablers of the syrian regime, are engaged. Israeli border, was captured by the free syrian army in october 2014. And a trail of documents reveals how aircraft from the west end up in the hands of. Russia is holding a lot of the cards in the syria crisis. Just as this crisis was breaking, barack obama cancelled a meeting with the man he needs to talk to above all others, vladimir putin, assads great russian ally. Most parties involved in the war in syria receive various types of support from foreign countries and entities based outside syria.
In 1893, the russian empire established a consular office in damascus, then a part of ottoman syria. Russia s position on syria is very close to that of iran. Russias policy on syria after the start of military engagement. The legality of russian airstrikes in syria and intervention. These realities would mean supporting the russianturkish ceasefire effort as a means of easing refugee outflows and restraining iranian gains, even if a syrian political solution is far off. Its mission is to be an analytical, researchled global forum for informing, influencing and. Russian war ships are deployed near the coast of syria and are ready to launch their cruise missiles. The largescale civilian killings perpetrated by assads regime have only reinforced the importance of. Visions is an electronic collection dedicated to russia and the. For russia, syria represents one of two pillars of its strategy in. The rise of the islamic state is in iraq and syria has encouraged both washington and tehran to find greater common ground, and it has fostered a growing interest on the part of western and iranian officials in exploring a more open relationship to address shared security concerns. Core us interests now at stake in syria, obama says. Turkey obtains a free hand in northern syria to stymie the territorial ambitions of the u.
Think of syria as a proxy war two powerful nations unwilling to risk the massive destruction that would accompany a direct conflict. The united states second main interest is to end the civil war. Two events indicate russias delicate military position in syria. As neither isis nor any other syrian opposition groups pos. Apr 06, 2018 private russian military contractors are being sent on clandestine flights to syria, planetracking data shows. In syria, russias stakes in president bashar alassads regime were clearly. Common goals and interests of iran and russia in syria.
Russias involvement in syria has given its relatio ns with neighbouring countries a new momentum. Russia holds the strategic port of tartous in syria. Iraqi officials also demonstrated a strong interest to cooperate with russia in fighting with isis. The internet is flooded with rumors about a russian military intervention in syria.
Syrias complex and devastating civil war has drawn in multiple foreign powers since it broke out in 2011. As one of the founding states of the soviet union, ukraine had been an important contributor to the soviet unions economy between 19201991. A logic all its own russian operational art in the syrian. Occasional paper understanding irans role in the syrian. Russia and syria oxford academic journals oxford university press. The strategic interests at play in us debate over syria. Vladimir putins russia is losing power in the middle east. Secretary of state hillary clinton is in russia for talks on syria and the united nations proposal for a government of national unity there. Russian diplomatic effortswith the possible exceptions of some oilproducing countries, most importantly saudi arabia.
At the same time, moscows heavyhanded attempts to tighten its grip over eastern ukraine were accompanied by waves of. The russian and syrian air forces are in control of the airspace over idleb. Trump, putin, and the future of usrussian relations slavic. The president has never formally revoked the goal he declared on aug. Arms exports have also been a key russian business interest closely tied to the syrian government. Not only that, but in any us russian confrontation, russia as a country is objectively the weaker side by any measure except a fullout nuclear exchange.
For further russian comments on syria and russian initiatives since 30 september 2015 not part of this military operation, see. First, the current situation in syria is not a zerosum game. Finally, the israeli website ynet also joined the rumor mill. With new missile defense for syria, russia shifts its. Realist political thought is said to focus on national interests.
Tartous is a russian naval base but also has significant pipeline access and infrastructure. The authors of this report assess where and under what conditions moscow could intervene again by analyzing the factors that drive russian decisionmaking on intervention. Occasional paper understanding irans role in the syrian conflict. The us russian competition in syria at log istic support level russia has played an important role in supporting the syrian regime in confronting the armed opposition. Despite divergent interests, iran, turkey and israel cooperate with russia and acknowledge its leadership in syria.
Russian and american interests in syria nuclear diner. Russian intervention in syria air power development centre. One of the factions wants to align with the european union and the other with russia. Turkish involvement in the syrian civil war wikipedia. Jan 27, 2020 the ukraine crisis is a power struggle between factions within ukraine. Iranian leaders have cited syria as being irans 35th province, with president bashar alassads alawite minority led government being a. The usrussian competition in syria at log istic support level russia has played an important role in supporting the syrian regime in confronting the armed opposition. The four reasons russia wont give up syria, no matter. Russias foreign policy towards syria and the greater middle east is generally not. Israel seeks to minimize iranian and russian influence in syria, block the transfer of advanced weapons to hezbollah, prevent syria from posing a credible military threat to israel or permitting iran to do so, undermine the legitimacy of syrias claims to the golan heights, and prevent sunni militants from establishing infrastructure or.
With russia and turkey seeking new solutions, dw examines where the major players stand. Through military intervention and diplomatic maneuvering, russian president vladimir putin has made his country into one of the major players in the syrian conflict. Airmen inspect a russian airplane at syria s latakia airfield. On november 24, 2015, a russian fighter was downed by turkish forces after allegedly violating turkish air space. On 1 october 2015, the syrian ambassador to russia, riyad haddad, stated that the russian air force is acting in full coordination with the syrian army. From the start of russian military involvement in syria until january 11, 2016, according to ihs janes 360, the amount of territory under the syrian governments control grew by just 1. Its only consistent ally since the 1979 islamic revolution, syria provides a crucial thoroughfare to hezbollah in lebanon. In 2011, it looked as if the arab spring uprisings would deal a further blow to russias declining influence in the middle east, by toppling syrian president assad, one of bashar almoscows few remaining allies in the region. Syria and analyzes its interest in supporting the regime. Mar 29, 2020 the ceasefire announced between ankara and moscow is unlikely to last.
Russias 2015 military intervention in syrias civil war took many by surprise. One point that likely came up with foreign minister. It all began with an article by thierry meyssan in voltaire net and now this rumor made it to zero hedge. In pursuit of maintaining their interests in syria, moscow and tehran have adopted different. Iran sees the survival of the syrian government as being crucial to its regional interests. Initially condemning the syrian government at the outbreak of civil unrest in syria during the spring of 2011, the turkish governments involvement gradually evolved into military assistance for the free syrian army in july 2011, border clashes in 2012, and direct military interventions. Russian politicians have been surprisingly mute on the israeli airstrikes in syria that took place on february 11.
Russia received the best possible gift from the trump administration right before christmas and now has a free hand to determine the future of its troubled. Jan 24, 2016 the real reason why iran backs syria by barak barfi the execution of a shiite cleric in saudi arabia and the burning of riyadhs embassy in iran has one again flamed sunnishiite tensions and. Doing so is the only way to stop the killing, end the flow of refugees to europe, and restore order. Regime change in syria is still at least officially u. Russian military intervention in the syrian civil war wikipedia. Previous russian attempts at finding a diplomatic solution in syria have all ended in failure. Nov 18, 2019 syria also made its first request for a deployment of soviet bombers and fighter planeswhich the kremlin turned downin 1956, in the wake of the suez crisis and as a counter to israel and turkey. One type of rus sian aircraft deployed to syria, the su30is capable of engaging other aircraft in addition to ground targets. As long as turkish president recep tayyip erdogan remains in charge and russia stays on its present course, the russian. His reputation for business acumen was sealed when he took over rosneft in 2012 and turned the majority stateowned company from the sick man of russian energy to its undisputed leader. According to moscow times, russians have invested more than 4. Turkeys airforce is not able to change that picture. Many observers have argued that the russian military operation in syria is a bold challenge to the united states in the region.
Russia officially launched its airstrikes in syria in september 2015. In this regard, russias decision to stand with its ally is. Hide footnote when hizbollah entered the war in syria, however, israel began to strike more aggressively to prevent the shiite militia from using the fog of war to screen the acquisition of gamechanging weaponry. During the cold war 19471991, syria was an ally to the soviet union in opposition to the western powers, and a strong political bond grew. A syria at peace would become less of a breeding ground for islamic extremism and pose less threat to the outside world. Furthermore, president recep tayyip erdogan needs to achieve a complete victory on behalf of the rebellion in idlib if he wishes to remain in power. From soviet times, russia has been a major arms exporter to the region. Yet russia and turkeys marriage of convenience, appears to serve both of their interests in syria. However, instead of analyzing russian president vladimir putins motivations for the operation in syria, us experts should focus their attention on current realities that both russia and the us are facing in syria today, pillar wrote.
Russian military intervention in the syrian civil war. These statements indicate that that russian leaders believe that they can live with a syria without assad as long as 1 his successors is chosen through negotiations, in which russia has a say, followed by elections rather than through use of force and 2 the new leadership honors russias interests. The russian intervention in syria, which was the actual cause of the rupturethe air incident was a pretexthas undercut turkeys policies in its near neighborhood and materially damaged its interests in syria. The meaning of russias campaign in syria the belfer center for. Russias economy interests behind its risky military move in. This article traces the structural roots of the current crisis in usrussia relations the weakening of us hegemony and the resurgence of russian power, and chronicles the series of contingencies that accompanied donald trumps rise to the presidency and his chaotic first few months in office.
If russia does have a longstanding security concern in the region, it is the spread of international terrorism to russia and neigh boring states. Their secondary interests are some degree of autonomy in the east and some settlement on crimea that gives russia more extensive rights there than it had before. These figures are in addition to four billion dollars of weapons that russia has sold syria. In 2011, syria accepted iraqs proposal for a pipeline to the eu market. Syria turkey invades idleb but its bluff will be called. The four reasons russia wont give up syria, no matter what. The islamic republic of iran and the syrian arab republic are close strategic allies, and iran has provided significant support for the syrian government in the syrian civil war, including logistical, technical and financial support, as well as training and some combat troops. But you wouldnt know that from recent commentary, like stephen walts piece touting vladimir putin as a master strategist and barack obama as bumbler. Sep 05, 20 president obama arrived in russia today for the group of 20 economic summit, where everyone is hoping he might be able to make some progress with russian president vladimir putin over syria.
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